Capital One
Big US banks boost cash holdings by nearly 8% in Q1
Dash for cash props up HQLAs as AFS securities drop to six-year low
At US banks, share of HTM securities ticks up in Q1
Despite liquidity squeeze, regional banks increased proportion to a six-year high
Western Alliance’s rate-risk gauge breaches internal guidance
EVE depletion for 100bp and 200bp hike scenarios highest disclosed by any US regional bank
US regionals remain laggards on EVE measure
Majority of lenders in Q1 did not report key metric that could have detected SVB’s risks
As rates rose, KeyBank unwound 94% of pay-fixed swaps
Sale of AFS hedges left book exposed throughout late 2022, much as at ill-fated SVB
For 11 US regionals, capital adequacy hinges on AOCI waiver
A repeal of the 2019 provision would hit KeyCorp and Charles Schwab the most
Five regional banks predict lower income from higher rates
IRRBB simulations show lending revenue shrinking as Fed policy gets tighter
HTM securities hit $2.5trn at US banks in 2022
BofA, First Foundation and Wells Fargo reported largest share of HTM to total securities behind SVB
US regional banks hold smaller proportion of high quality assets
Share of Level 1 assets at Capital One, Truist, US Bancorp lowest across US banks subject to LCR
At US banks, less than 50% of liquid assets classified as AFS
Goldman Sachs reported smallest proportion relative to HQLAs across US banks subject to LCR
Like SVB, five other US lenders saw negative NII growth in 2022
Ally, Customers, First Foundation, Morgan Stanley and PacWest were pressured by rising rates
US banks’ risk-free exposures keep falling
Assets with 0% risk-weighting lowest proportionally since Q1 2020, replaced by riskier exposures
US banks’ VAR breaches up 2.5x in 2022
‘Hypothetical’ one-day losses exceeded VAR on 55 occasions, as losing trading days prevail
Contrarian Goldman grew fair-value bond book in 2022
Held-to-maturity securities balloon, but bank also adds mark-to-market Treasuries as others curtail them
US credit risk modellers prepare for life after IRB
Stress tests and economic capital calculations may not carry the same weight as Basel ratio
Capital One’s loan charge-offs surge 54% in Q4
Amount of credit cards and consumer loans getting written off approaches pre-pandemic levels
At US banks, risk-free exposures hit lowest in two years
Just under a third of credit assets carried a 0% risk-weight in Q3
BNY Mellon, Schwab would benefit most from SLR relief
A repeat of the pandemic carve-out would boost average ratio across US banks by 45bp
TLAC rules no sweat for US regionals
Capital One and US Bancorp best placed to fund their balance sheets with long-term debt
PNC, Truist most reliant on tailored LCR requirements
Liquidity ratios would be below regulatory minimum without Fed's cap for regional US banks
Despite bond price crash, Capital One sticks with AFS book
Lender letting AFS book run its course as others seek shelter from interest rate storm
Fed ‘tailoring’ led to larger, less capitalised regional US banks
Lenders freed from toughest requirements in 2018 grew balance sheets but saw capital ratios slip
Capital One changed SVAR window 24 times in Q1
Since 2020, the lender updated its chosen stress period dozens of times each quarter, far more frequently than peers
Danske, Deutsche and PNC pin SVAR to Covid-19
Most global banks continue to use the global financial crisis to stress-test their portfolios