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Journal of Risk Model Validation

Risk.net

The application of a corporate bond default risk-identification model to digital economic security

Yuanquan Cui

  • A CatBoost-based risk identification model is developed for corporate bond default prediction.
  • Financial performance and corporate governance indicators were jointly incorporated to improve risk recognition.
  • The proposed model achieved 0.88 accuracy, 0.91 F1 score, and 0.99 precision at a training set size of 1000.
  • CatBoost reduced recognition time to 0.9 s at 40 iterations, outperforming Random Forest, Back-Propagation, and Logistic Regression models.

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