US banks’ stress-test projections stray further from Fed’s in 2023

Average gap between Fed- and bank-estimated depletions more than double from previous two DFASTs

The largest US banks did a worse job of estimating their post-stress capital ratios in the Federal Reserve’s latest Dodd-Frank Act stress test (DFAST) compared with the previous two years, Risk Quantum research has found.

On average, the projected stressed Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) capital ratios of the country’s eight systemic banks, plus Northern Trust, diverged from the Fed’s estimates by