Looking at Black Swans
In the second of a four-part series on the development of risk management, David Rowe considers the phenomenon of high-impact events, or Black Swans
In 2004, I wrote a column entitled Op Risk and Black Swans (Risk September 2004, page 114). I had stumbled on to Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s musing about extreme events on the web two-and-a-half years before his book, The Black Swan, was published.
It was immediately clear to me he had found a far better hook for driving home the importance of extreme events than we risk managers had done up to that
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