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Private credit risk doesn’t have to be systemic to be serious
Risk management leader outlines three cracks in the consensus that risk in the private credit sector is contained
AI compute has a governance problem
As exchanges move to launch compute futures, Vishal Gupta argues that the real test is not product innovation, but whether governance can keep pace
Podcast: Lipton and Lopez de Prado on a quant approach to private equity
The pair introduce analytical methods to valuing and allocating private asset investments
Why do prices jump?
After years of investigation, we still aren’t sure, says Jean-Philippe Bouchaud
Don’t mind the gap risk: regulatory treatment of credit repacks
Gap risk in repackaging is not a credit valuation adjustment for Basel III capital purposes, argues senior quant Andrey Chirikhin
Op risk data: HSBC hit with $400m external fraud loss
Also: China’s unlicensed trading clampdown; SocGen’s insurance mis-selling woes. Data by ORX News
Vinicius fortune: quantifying luck in the World Cup draw
Julien Guyon explains how bias, variance and luck affect teams in this summer’s tournament – and explores wider relevance for portfolio managers
G-Sib capital surcharge: how indexing and averaging alter incentives
Capital risk strategist anticipates Basel III endgame impact on US big-bank behaviour
Podcast: Abi-Jaber and Li on a ‘sticky’ volatility problem
The pair discuss their model to jointly capture Vix, SPX and SSR
Markets perceive the future in very distorted ways
Discounting paradigms should adapt to be more realistic, says Jean-Philippe Bouchaud
Op risk data: Cyber hacks shake crypto protocols
Also: JP Morgan fined over investor losses; Symetra’s Methodist pensions mess. Data by ORX News
Prediction markets can be a canary in the coal mine
Prices of contracts on the likes of Polymarket can act as signals for risk management and hedging, says risk expert
How AI agents can join the dots for risk managers
Citi risk expert outlines agentic AI tool that would pull together structured and unstructured data on trading and lending approvals to create single, unified view of risk
Op risk data: Corporate spies spell trouble for BBVA
Also: BofA buttonholed for alleged Epstein links; minority shareholders take a bite of Brookfield. Data by ORX News
The rise of AI politics
AI should not be treated as just another technology, writes MAS adviser David Hardoon
AI risk management and the shift to capability control
By reframing validation, banks can align innovation with regulatory demands and maintain robust risk discipline, argues risk manager
Tokenised commodities could help oil the machine
Shifting physical assets onto the blockchain eases collateral frictions, argues crypto expert
In the age of GenAI, why do we still need good models?
Jean-Philippe Bouchaud says models can guide artificial intelligence through regime shifts and away from overfitting
When trading speed outruns governance: the split-second control gap
A new form of light-driven electronics could be the next risk in market infrastructure, explains derivatives expert
What futures and options say about the cost of war
Spot prices reveal major disruption, futures indicate this will pass, options imply ongoing instability
For collateral, can TINA become TIA?
US Treasuries’ dominance as collateral in repo and derivatives is no longer set in stone, argues economist