Risk Quantum/European Banking Authority (EBA)
Covid-forborne EU loans sour faster as more exit moratoria
Exposures classified as stage two rose 37% in the first three months of 2021
EU banks’ credit risk estimates stabilised at year-end
Weighted average corporate borrower PD across countries climbed to 2.15%
Own-country risk makes up 51% of EU bank sovereign portfolios
Home government exposures up seven percentage points in 2020
EU banks saw distressed loans heap up in Q4
‘Stage two’ assets make up 9.1% of banks’ total
Most EU banks use historical simulation approach to VAR
Few lenders favour Monte Carlo or parametric methodologies
At 40% of EU banks, credit risk own-funds deviate from benchmarks
Eleven banks lowballed capital requirements without justification in latest exercise
Fourteen EU banks face sanctions for poor market risk models
Twenty lenders lowballed capital requirements
UK banks count cost of EU software capital reversal
Average CET1 ratio would fall 29 basis points
EU banks count capital benefits of new software treatment
Deutsche Bank reaps 43bp gross benefit
EBA stress test to gird banks for long Covid depression
Real GDP projected to fall -12.9% from baseline by 2023
Credit risk of EU state-backed loans deteriorated in Q3
Almost 5% of public guarantee scheme loans are designated ‘stage two’
European banks held near €300bn of state-backed loans in Q3
Italian banks see public guarantee scheme loans increase the most quarter on quarter
Covid payment holidays for €224bn of EU loans ended in Q3
French, German and Italian banks saw most loans lose moratoria protection