Technical paper/Oil
Locational arbitrage strategies for Shanghai crude futures
The authors investigate crude oil futures introduced on the Shanghai International Energy Exchange in March 2018 and the locational trading strategies they can provide and put forward an example of locational arbitrage hedged against foreign risk.
High-frequency movements of the term structure of US interest rates: the role of oil market uncertainty
This paper analyzes the impact of oil market uncertainty on the level, slope and curvature factors derived from the term structure of US interest rates.
Oil value-at-risk forecasts: a filtered semiparametric approach
This paper proposes the GARCH model combined with the Cornish–Fisher expansion for the oil VaR forecast.
Directional predictability between returns and trading volume in the futures markets of energy: insights into traders’ behavior
This papers aims to test for directional predictability between returns and volume (and vice versa) in the energy futures markets, employing a cross-quantilogram approach that enables the assessment of the temporal association between two stationary time…
Using equity, index and commodity options to obtain forward-looking measures of equity and commodity betas and idiosyncratic variance
This paper presents a means to extract forward-looking measures of equity and commodity betas, and idiosyncratic variance.
Reinvestigating international crude oil market risk spillovers
This paper develops a copula-GARCH-MIDAS model to estimate the joint probability distribution of multivariate variables, and then derives CoVaR-type risk measures.
Impact of changes in the global environment on price differentials between the US crude oil spot markets for the periods before and after 2008–9
This paper uses threshold cointegration to examine price differentials between crude oil spot markets in the US for the periods before (2000–2007) and after (2010–17) the advent of major technological and other changes impacting the oil sector.
The relationship between oil prices, global economic policy uncertainty and financial market stress
This paper introduces two models: the first analyzes the impacts of global economic policy uncertainty, gold prices and three-month US Treasury bill rates on oil prices between 1997 and 2020, and the second examines the effects of oil prices and US…
Causality between oil prices and exchange rates: a quantile-on-quantile analysis
This study examines the causal link between the crude oil price and the exchange rate in five major oil-exporting countries (Saudi Arabia, Russia, Canada, the United Arab Emirates and the United States) that have recently adopted different exchange rate…
Estimating the hedging potentials of Bitcoin and energy returns
This paper investigates the significance of oil, gold and coal returns on Bitcoin returns for a research duration of January 2011 to September 2018 on a monthly periodic basis.
Optimal extraction and taxation of strategic natural resources: a differential game approach
This paper studies the optimal extraction and taxation of nonrenewable natural resources.
Debt and the oil industry: analysis on the firm and production level
This paper analyzes the relationship between debt and the production decisions of companies active in the exploration and production of oil and gas in the United States.
Takeover likelihood in the oil and gas industry: firm-, macro- or industry-specific causes?
In this study, the authors investigate drivers of merger activity in the oil and gas sector and seek to ascertain how key determinants influence the takeover likelihood of oil and gas companies.
The impact of unconventional monetary policy shocks on the crude oil futures market
This paper examines how West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil price returns and volatilities respond to changes in US monetary policy.
Exploration risk in international oil and gas shareholder returns
This paper focuses upon the oil and gas industry, examining the association between exploration activity risk and company shareholder returns.
A forward dynamic optimization strategy under contango storage arbitrage with frictions
The goal of this paper is to explain and improve the offshore oil storage trade observed in a contango market using a forward dynamic optimization strategy. The strategy is developed using trades in forward contracts and contrasted with the literature.
Using derivatives to forecast oil scenarios
Generating probability-weighted oil price scenarios from traded derivatives prices can help risk managers in the industry
Causality networks of financial assets
Through financial network analysis, this paper ascertains the existence of important causal behavior between certain financial assets, as inferred from eight different causality methods.
Modeling superior predictors for crude oil prices
This paper provides an analysis of a broad spectrum of fundamental and nonfundamental indicators for crude oil prices.
Stress hedging in portfolio construction
Bilgili, Ferconi and Ulitsky propose a constrained portfolio optimisation approach incorporating stress scenarios
Optimal oil production under mean-reverting Lévy models with regime switching
This paper models the evolution of the oil price as a mean-reverting regime-switching jump–diffusion process.