Technical paper/Risk management/Risk management
The score for credit
Jorge Sobehart and Sean Keenan discuss the benefits and limitations of model performance measures for default and credit spread prediction, and highlight several common pitfalls in the model comparison found in the literature and vendor documentation. To…
Multi-factor adjustment
The author presents an analytical method for calculating portfolio value-at-risk and expected shortfall in the multi-factor Merton framework. This method is essentially an extension of the granularity adjustment technique to a new dimension.
How good is your information?
Fraud, opaque accounting practices and incomplete data are unavoidable. Butare they factored into a credit risk forecast? An emerging class of models doesthe job by assuming incomplete information. Barra's Lisa Goldberg explains.
Bringing credit portfolio modelling to maturity
Michael Barco shows how to perform mark-to-market credit portfolio modelling by extendingthe well-known saddle-point technique, introducing spread and recovery rate volatility. Hethen tests his results on a fictitious portfolio, showing how asset…
Sensible and efficient capital allocation for credit portfolios
Michael Kalkbrener, Hans Lotter and Ludger Overbeck construct a new approach to economiccapital allocation, showing that three axioms uniquely determine a capital allocation scheme,and, more importantly, that any allocation satisfying the axioms is…
’Tis the season...
Abstract: Aurelian Tröndle presents a general framework for modelling prices of storable and non-storableenergy assets, which sheds light on different market fundamentals, and showshow energy market volatility is seasonal and anything but stable. The…
Bringing credit portfolio modelling to maturity
Michael Barco shows how to perform mark-to-market credit portfolio modelling by extending the well-known saddle-point technique, introducing spread and recovery rate volatility. He then tests his results on a fictitious portfolio, showing how asset…
Calculating transfer risk using Monte Carlo
Marco van der Burgt constructs a model of emerging market transfer risk based on a country’s foreign exchange reserves that is combined with facility-dependent risk factors that determine counterparty exposure in the event of a moratorium. He then…
Mark up the scorecard
Sergio Scandizzo and Roberto Setola explore the application of a scorecard approach to the measurement of operational risk, assessing both its reliability as a risk-management tool and the practicalities of its implementation.
Dissecting risk
New frontiers
Economic capital – how much do you really need?
Economic capital is becoming the language of risk. While market, credit and operational risk have different determinants and use different methodologies, the levels of risk can all be summarised in a common dimension – the amount of economic capital…
Understanding the expected loss debate
The final draft of the new global Accord on bank regulatory capital – Basel II – has been delayed. A critical and unresolved issue is whether banks should include expected losses in their measure of credit risk. The IMF's Paul Kupiec reports on efforts…