Natural gas
Bailed-out Uniper suffered €14bn derivatives markdown in H1
Company cut value of gas forwards contracts due to risk of reduced deliveries from Russia
EU plan to suspend power derivatives gets icy response
Proposal from energy ministers to ease collateral burdens blasted as “silly” and “terrible idea”
Banks shock commodities by 1,000% in stress-test rethink
Energy price spikes force clearing firms to consider extreme or even ‘implausible’ scenarios
Dynamic spillover between the crude oil, natural gas and BRICS stock markets
This paper investigates the dynamic spillover between crude oil, natural gas and the stock markets in Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa (BRICS).
Initial margin at Ice Europe up 15% over Q1
IM held against F&O positions hit all-time high, as number of margin breaches nudged higher
Energy Risk Commodity Rankings: banks and brokers battle extreme volatility
Winners of the 2022 Commodity Rankings needed new approaches to manage extreme price swings
Energy market split over emergency government support
German move to backstop margins with liquidity facility welcomed by energy producers – but others say it’s unnecessary
Ice Clear Europe issued $5.4bn VM call in Q4
Price volatility in energy markets behind the largest cash call on record by the CCP
Ice Clear Europe hit by $1.03bn margin breach
The CCP’s futures and options division reported its second largest IM breach ever in Q4, as energy prices skyrocketed
Energy firms call for central bank support to cover margin spikes
EFET warns energy market participants risk being unable to meet “unprecedented margin requirements”
Theory for optimizing capacitated commodity storage with case studies in natural gas
In this paper the author's develop theoretical concepts of optimal injecting and withdrawing for a capacitated commodity storage and give case studies in natural gas.
The impact of European gas prices on climate goals
As governments increase their focus on climate change following the UN Climate Change Conference, COP26, ZE Power asks whether high gas prices in Europe could derail decarbonisation efforts
Blame to spare in UK energy supplier debacle
Price cap was part of the problem, but lack of hedging and oversight also contributed
Forecasting natural gas price trends using random forest and support vector machine classifiers
In this paper, different machine learning approaches are applied to forecasting future yearly price trends in the natural gas Title Transfer Facility market in the Netherlands.
Losing their hedge: why so many UK energy suppliers went bust
Hedging strategies were powerless to protect firms from runaway energy price rises
Energy vol puts spotlight on Ice’s TTF futures margin
Clearing firms say exchange was slow to react as natural gas prices spiked
The liquefied natural gas spot market and valuation of the rerouting option
The goal of this paper is twofold: (1) to describe the new outlook of LNG markets, which has become more and more spot-centric, with Asian LNG futures bringing transparency to spot and forward prices; and (2) to address the valuation of the rerouting…
Derivatives house of the year: Macquarie Group
Energy Risk Awards 2020: Firm’s wide commodities presence, physical and financial risk expertise and financing capabilities result in standout deals
Optimal extraction and taxation of strategic natural resources: a differential game approach
This paper studies the optimal extraction and taxation of nonrenewable natural resources.
All aboard for LNG freight derivatives?
Tools to manage LNG freight risk were developed last year, but how is the market responding?
Calls to hike climate policy raise risk for oil firms
Increased climate policy will put more oil and gas assets under threat of stranding
Risk premia strategies – Lessons learned for the future
After a difficult 2018, investors are increasingly wary of risk premia, concerned that factors leading to underperformance might be a recurring problem. Imene Moussa, executive director at UBS, clarifies this issue
Parameter variation and the components of natural gas price volatility
This paper models natural gas returns explicitly, allowing for market participants to learn over time and to react differently to present changes in economic variables. This learning and adaptation, and the attendant parameter uncertainty, constitutes…
Finding potential in a volatile commodities market
Macquarie is uniquely positioned to offer clients a range of products, expertise and experience across the commodities space. Nick O’Kane discusses the bank’s approach to commodity markets and what he expects next