Credit risk modelling
Weak EU banks may lowball Covid loan losses – ECB
Low-profitability banks provision less than their more flush counterparts
Aussie bank loan-loss provisions top A$11bn
Westpac absorbed the largest charge of the ‘Big Four’
Regions deploys early-warning tool for credit risk
Risk USA: system alerted US superregional to impending defaults during Covid crisis
Loan-loss provisions take a smaller bite out of EU banks in Q3
Set-asides fell 57% quarter on quarter
Which EU banks hold the most SME exposures?
Danske Bank, Crédit Agricole, Group BPCE lead the field
UK banks took £2bn of loan-loss provisions in Q3
Barclays and HSBC increased reserves the most out of the top lenders
Lloyds lightens 2020 ECL forecast, but projects a gloomier 2021
UK banks expects full-year loan-loss amounts to come hit lower end of £4.5 billion–5.5 billion range
At Santander, Covid relief for €75bn of loans expired through Q3
Sixteen per cent of loans coming out of payment holidays have experienced a fall in creditworthiness
FX headwinds cancel out HSBC’s Q3 RWAs cut
Portfolio reductions reaped $10.8 billion of RWA savings
Finding the corporate credit cycle for IFRS 9
Decomposing corporate default rates helps identify credit cycles
Covid policy risk hangs over bank stress tests
Banks and regulators are second-guessing the policy response to new outbreaks
Systemic US banks put aside $5bn for credit losses in Q3
Citi put aside $2.3 billion in Q3, the most of the top lenders
Citi’s energy loans continued to sour in Q3
22% of funded exposures rated CCC or lower as of end-September
Souring loans piled up at EU banks in Q2
Share of loans that have declined in creditworthiness made up 8.2% of lenders’ totals
EU banks’ credit risk estimates deteriorated in Q2
Weighted average corporate borrower PD across countries climbed to 2.04%
A joint model of failures and credit ratings
The authors propose a novel framework for credit risk modeling, where default or failure information and rating or expert information are jointly incorporated in the model.
Covid credit outlooks for UK banks vary
Standard Chartered and HSBC have worst downside outlooks relative to their own base cases
Ratings can still sharpen credit risk picture
Study shows even the most modern default models benefit from adding credit rating information
Credit Suisse, UBS counterparty exposures ballooned in Q2
Risk-weighted assets lagged surge in EAD
‘Big Five’ Canadian banks post C$6.6bn of loan-losses in Q3
PCLs fell 36% quarter-on-quarter
Model change erodes credit RWAs at TD
US retail loans have grown 23% in two years
US banks’ corporate default indicators worsened in Q2
Median probability of default increases 38bp to 1.7% on the quarter
Systemic eurozone bank provisions hit €11bn in Q2
ING sees loan-loss charge double in Q2
Shift out of models nets ING €8bn of sovereign RWA relief
Of standardised approach government debt exposures, 24% had a zero risk-weighting in Q2