Market graphic - The 2008-2010 credit cycle

Evidence that credit conditions are a leading indicator of the default and business cycles can be confirmed by comparing a generalised cycle for credit conditions with a generalised cycle for defaults (see chart 1). We measure credit conditions by the tightening of commercial and industrial (C&I) lending standards. A generalised cycle gives us a strong baseline case upon which we can overlay other factors that we believe will impact a cycle.

It is interesting, and important, to note the historica

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