The Ludic fallacy


Nassim Nicholas Taleb, author of bestselling book The Black Swan, stunned the audience with his keynote speech, opening OpRisk USA 2008 with something of a 'bang'.

"The probabilities that we have in real life have absolutely nothing to do with what you encounter in a casino. Nothing. I call it the Ludic fallacy," he said. "There are things that you can not mathematise, and by mathematising them, you close yourself to a representation of probabilities, which is misleading. In real life, you don't

Only users who have a paid subscription or are part of a corporate subscription are able to print or copy content.

To access these options, along with all other subscription benefits, please contact or view our subscription options here:

You are currently unable to copy this content. Please contact to find out more.

Sorry, our subscription options are not loading right now

Please try again later. Get in touch with our customer services team if this issue persists.

New to View our subscription options

If you already have an account, please sign in here.

Investment banks: the future of risk control

This survey report explores the current state of risk controls in investment banks, the challenges of effective engagement across the three lines of defence, and the opportunity to develop a more dynamic approach to first-line risk control

You need to sign in to use this feature. If you don’t have a account, please register for a trial.

Sign in
You are currently on corporate access.

To use this feature you will need an individual account. If you have one already please sign in.

Sign in.

Alternatively you can request an individual account here