The Ludic fallacy
MANAGEMENT
Nassim Nicholas Taleb, author of bestselling book The Black Swan, stunned the audience with his keynote speech, opening OpRisk USA 2008 with something of a 'bang'.
"The probabilities that we have in real life have absolutely nothing to do with what you encounter in a casino. Nothing. I call it the Ludic fallacy," he said. "There are things that you can not mathematise, and by mathematising them, you close yourself to a representation of probabilities, which is misleading. In real life, you don't
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