Simulations

Kannoo Ravindran

What are simulations? Simulations are a mathematical technique that rely on an ability to mimic the experiment (process) using a probabilistically-generated input to obtain an outcome (result) and the law-of-large-numbers to ensure the convergence of the average value of these outcomes, if the experiment is conducted repeatedly using more inputs sampled from the same probability distribution. Despite the fact that simulations are (and have been) used extensively to assess the risks (including the cost of guarantees) associated with the likes of variable annuities, fixed indexed annuities and other market-linked annuities and insurance products, it was never intended as a tool of choice to price options when first introduced by Boyle (1977). The idea of using simulations to value products such as derivatives only began to catch on and then spread widely when the hardware (for example, fast processing computers) started to become cheaper (see Glasserman, 2004, for more on this topic).

The philosophy underlying the use of simulations to solve any pricing or valuation problem can be reduced more succinctly to answering the following questions.

    • How can one generate random

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