Investor crowds have blunted nowcasting returns, quants say

Buy-siders see shrunken returns in predicting near-term earnings


Nowcasting has become a multi-billion-dollar business, but the approach is ineffective for predicting short-term stock prices, according to $44 billion quant shop PanAgora and others. The quants say getting ahead of other investors around company earnings time is a poor source of returns compared with reading the longer-term forces driving profits.

Quantitative managers traditionally have forecast price moves using data from company accounts or from prices themselves. Nowcasting is the newer

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