Since last June, the US central bank has raised short-term interest rates from 1% to 3% but the yield on the 10-year Treasury note has declined by about 80 basis points to just under 4%. Does this suggest that the US economy is showing signs of weakness?
The short answer is yes, although there are a variety of factors driving long-term interest rates at any given point in time. The bond market is sniffing out the prospect of a discernible slowing in real GDP growth in coming quarters. Most