China: covering the angles

Risk analysis


Many eras present major macro event risks. One famous example was the debate over whether there would be a renewed depression after World War II triggered by a sharp fall in military spending. Sewell Avery, chairman of Montgomery Ward, insisted a new downturn was inevitable and refused to borrow for expansion. His arch-rivals at Sears, Roebuck & Company took the opposite view, and they were soon running the dominant American retail chain.

In the early 1980s, many analysts could not conceive of a

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