Mixed signals

Bull or bear? The number of indicators for the future direction of the global credit markets is growing, but they’re not all pointing the same way.


“The ‘Golden era’ for credit returns is already over,” wrote Gary Jenkins, global head of credit research at Barclays Capital in London, at the end of January. “Didn’t last long, did it?”

The era to which Jenkins was referring extended from the middle of last March to December, and, as he is quick to explain, represented a period of exceptional returns for investors in the credit market. But much of those chunky excess returns over government bonds, says Jenkins, were simply a by-product of

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