Models predict weak US outlook

Are the US capital markets set for even more trouble in 2003? Both Moody’s KMV and CreditSights’ BondScore – Merton-based default models, which use equity market volatility and financial ratios to predict the probability of a company defaulting on its debt – claim that there is more bad news to come.

Moody’s KMV suggests that one in 20 US companies will default on its debt over the next 12 months. And at the same time CreditSights’ BondScore says that the 60 downgrades in November indicate no

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