Groundhog year

The spread tightening at the back end of 2004 echoed that of 2003. What are the factors that drove last year’s spread performance and will they still influence the market in 2005?

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Generally speaking, 2004 was a good year for credit, with spreads tightening against the expectation of many. Deemed to be at rich levels back in January, spreads on the iBoxx index have converged on the all-time tights (see chart right) – a feat that Suki Mann, senior credit strategist at SG CIB, says is all the more remarkable given that Ford and General Motors, which represent 3.5% of the corporate bond index, widened significantly last year. “The excellent fundamental backdrop is

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