Risk Quantum/Morgan Stanley
At US banks, share of HTM securities ticks up in Q1
Despite liquidity squeeze, regional banks increased proportion to a six-year high
US banks report negative NII growth amid rising rates
Goldman, KeyCorp and Charles Schwab worst hit in Q1 as funding costs sap income growth
As rates rose, KeyBank unwound 94% of pay-fixed swaps
Sale of AFS hedges left book exposed throughout late 2022, much as at ill-fated SVB
US banks vulnerable to losses if HTM securities need to be sold
Overall mark-to-market value $300bn lower than amortised cost across 30 banks
HTM securities hit $2.5trn at US banks in 2022
BofA, First Foundation and Wells Fargo reported largest share of HTM to total securities behind SVB
At US banks, less than 50% of liquid assets classified as AFS
Goldman Sachs reported smallest proportion relative to HQLAs across US banks subject to LCR
Like SVB, five other US lenders saw negative NII growth in 2022
Ally, Customers, First Foundation, Morgan Stanley and PacWest were pressured by rising rates
US banks’ risk-free exposures keep falling
Assets with 0% risk-weighting lowest proportionally since Q1 2020, replaced by riskier exposures
US banks’ VAR breaches up 2.5x in 2022
‘Hypothetical’ one-day losses exceeded VAR on 55 occasions, as losing trading days prevail
Contrarian Goldman grew fair-value bond book in 2022
Held-to-maturity securities balloon, but bank also adds mark-to-market Treasuries as others curtail them
MMFs’ reverse repos with Fed surged 35% last year
Fidelity-run funds drove 29% of the $601 billion in new trades
BNY Mellon, Goldman join Citi in escaping Collins floor
Outpaced drop in standardised RWAs pushes banks above threshold – but custodian only bank to reap benefits