Risk Quantum/Fifth Third Bank
As rates rose, KeyBank unwound 94% of pay-fixed swaps
Sale of AFS hedges left book exposed throughout late 2022, much as at ill-fated SVB
For 11 US regionals, capital adequacy hinges on AOCI waiver
A repeal of the 2019 provision would hit KeyCorp and Charles Schwab the most
Five regional banks predict lower income from higher rates
IRRBB simulations show lending revenue shrinking as Fed policy gets tighter
HTM securities hit $2.5trn at US banks in 2022
BofA, First Foundation and Wells Fargo reported largest share of HTM to total securities behind SVB
At regional US banks, BTFP-eligible securities top $300bn
Assets classified as held-to-maturity made up less than 19% of aggregate securities portfolios in 2022
Like SVB, five other US lenders saw negative NII growth in 2022
Ally, Customers, First Foundation, Morgan Stanley and PacWest were pressured by rising rates
US banks’ VAR breaches up 2.5x in 2022
‘Hypothetical’ one-day losses exceeded VAR on 55 occasions, as losing trading days prevail
TLAC rules no sweat for US regionals
Capital One and US Bancorp best placed to fund their balance sheets with long-term debt
Fed ‘tailoring’ led to larger, less capitalised regional US banks
Lenders freed from toughest requirements in 2018 grew balance sheets but saw capital ratios slip