Risk Quantum/Capital One
Systemic risk scores climb at largest US regionals
Funding indicators inflate systemic footprint of Capital One, KeyCorp, US Bancorp and Truist in Q1
US arms of Credit Suisse, SMBC stumble on VAR
Breaches of trading forecasts in Q1 result in higher value-at-risk multipliers for the duo
Big US banks boost cash holdings by nearly 8% in Q1
Dash for cash props up HQLAs as AFS securities drop to six-year low
At US banks, share of HTM securities ticks up in Q1
Despite liquidity squeeze, regional banks increased proportion to a six-year high
Western Alliance’s rate-risk gauge breaches internal guidance
EVE depletion for 100bp and 200bp hike scenarios highest disclosed by any US regional bank
US regionals remain laggards on EVE measure
Majority of lenders in Q1 did not report key metric that could have detected SVB’s risks
As rates rose, KeyBank unwound 94% of pay-fixed swaps
Sale of AFS hedges left book exposed throughout late 2022, much as at ill-fated SVB
For 11 US regionals, capital adequacy hinges on AOCI waiver
A repeal of the 2019 provision would hit KeyCorp and Charles Schwab the most
Five regional banks predict lower income from higher rates
IRRBB simulations show lending revenue shrinking as Fed policy gets tighter
HTM securities hit $2.5trn at US banks in 2022
BofA, First Foundation and Wells Fargo reported largest share of HTM to total securities behind SVB
US regional banks hold smaller proportion of high quality assets
Share of Level 1 assets at Capital One, Truist, US Bancorp lowest across US banks subject to LCR
At US banks, less than 50% of liquid assets classified as AFS
Goldman Sachs reported smallest proportion relative to HQLAs across US banks subject to LCR