Shaohui Jia is a special advisor in the risk analytics and surveillance unit within the Supervision, Regulation, and Credit department at the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, where he is responsible for identifying inherent and emerging risk among banking institutions in the Third District and creating innovative analytical tools for supervisory staff. He has nearly two decades of modeling experience in Financial Risk Management, Financial Econometrics, and Retail Credit Risk. Prior to joining the Federal Reserve System, he worked as Senior Vice President in the Quantitative Testing and Modeling department at Bank of America specializing in credit card acquisition risk modeling. He earned PhD in Statistics from Louisiana Tech University, and Master’s and Bachelor’s degrees in Statistics from Peking University.
The results of this paper show that robust forward-looking statistical models are superior to backward-looking assessments of supervisory compliance, which could lead to less regulatory burden when integrated into the examination process, particularly at…