Technical paper/Risk management/Commodities

Weather risk: gauging the exposure

There is now an array of instruments available to hedge weather exposure, but evaluating that exposure is far harder than quantifying standard exposures such as commodity price risk. Garth Renne and Shaun Hatch discuss approaches to analysing wind and…

The true cost of no-cost mortgages

Banks offering no-cost mortgages have been accused of hiding the real cost of the loan from borrowers. But as Andrew Kalotay and Jinghua Qian explain, lenders can also run into problems if they fail to calculate correctly the prepayment behaviour of…

Purchase timing

Managing purchase timing risk is a constant issue for wholesale power buyers. Pavel Diko reviews products that reduce this risk, proposes a lookback option that can eliminate it completely and outlines a hedging strategy for the option writer

Hedging weather exposure

Volumetric weather risk is usually levered by the commodity price, resulting in cross-commodity exposure known as a quanto. Hedging such exposure with quanto instruments is costly. Victor Dvortsov suggests a simple strategy that allows efficient hedging…

Nuclear fusion R&D

In 50 years, nuclear fusion may be a major source of energy, but until then extensive research and development is needed. To justify the current and future R&D expenditure, a cost-benefit analysis designed specially for this sector is required. David…

A matter of principal

Developing term structure models can be tricky, as unknown factors and non-observable variables can affect futures prices. But principal components analysis is useful in tackling these problems. Here, Delphine Lautier uses PCA to pin down price movements…

Caring competition

What are the theoretical consequences of restructuring electricity markets on emissions? Here, Benoît Sévi shows that changes in supply and consumption and restructuring for competition has environmental effects, and argues that strong public…

Correlated defaults: let's go back to the data

Estimates of asset value correlation are a key element of Merton-style credit portfoliomodels. Many practitioners have access to asset value data for a large universe of listedfirms, so estimation is within reach. Alan Pitts describes a statistical…

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