Measuring and Managing the Impact of New Impairment Models on Dynamics in Allowance, Earnings and Bank Capital
Amnon Levy and Jing Zhang
Introduction
The New Era of Expected Credit Loss Provisioning
The Marking of CECL Standard: Comments and Reflections
Sources of Modelling Variation in CECL Allowances
A CRO’s Perspective: Implementing, Operationalising and Governing of IFRS 9
Implementing Both IFRS 9 and CECL
Macroeconomic Forecasting and Scenario Design for IFRS 9 and CECL
Technology Solutions for CECL and IFRS 9
Implementing IFRS 9: Quantifying Expected Credit Losses in Retail and Wholesale Portfolios
From Incurred Loss to CECL: Historical Perspectives and Practical Guidance
Loss Forecasting Retail and Commercial Portfolios for CECL
Implementing CECL at Small and Community Banks
The New Impairment Model: Audit and Disclosure Challenges
The New Impairment Model: Governance and Validation
The Impacts of CECL: Empirical Assessments and Implications
How the New Impairment Model Could Affect Banks’ Business Models
Measuring and Managing the Impact of New Impairment Models on Dynamics in Allowance, Earnings and Bank Capital
Integration into Regulatory Capital Frameworks
Implications for Equity and Debt Investors
INTRODUCTION
Reserving for loan loss is one of the most important accounting aspects for banks. Its objective is to cover estimated losses on impaired financial instruments due to defaults and nonpayment. Reserve measurement affects both the balance sheet and income statement. It impacts on earnings, capital, dividends and bonuses, and attracts the attention of bank stakeholders ranging from the board of directors and regulators to equity investors. In response to the so-called “too little, too late” problem experienced with loan-loss reserve during the global financial crisis, accounting standard setters now require that banks provision against loan loss based on expected credit losses (ECLs). Arguably, calculating the ECL model under IFRS 9 and CECL presents a momentous accounting change for banks, with the new standards coming into effect sometime between 2018 and 2021, depending on the jurisdiction.
The new impairment models required to meet these standards replace existing “incurred-loss models” with more forward-looking approaches that incorporate future credit-loss forecasts. Regulation requires that banks recognise and update ECL at each reporting date to reflect
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