Don’t follow the models: they’re lost, too – risk managers

Risk USA: managers cite Covid, repo crisis and geopolitical risks as examples of model failures

Covid

“The past is not prologue.” The view expressed by Navin Sharma, head of T Rowe Price’s fixed income risk management, was echoed by fellow future risk panellists at Risk USA this week: the historical precedents on which risk models were built are shattered.

User experience and a healthy dose of human judgement are critical to qualitatively identify a model’s biases, senior risk managers agree.

“The next crisis will differ, even given similarities with the present,” said Sharma. “A lot of times

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