Covid scenarios: finding the worst worst-case

As pandemic trashes historical data, a Risk.net tie-up with Ron Dembo’s new outfit tests promise of polling

This is the first in Risk.net’s series of crowd-sourced scenario-generation exercises.

By September 26, the still-spreading coronavirus will have extracted a heavy toll from the US economy, and triggered a catastrophic collapse in demand for US assets. The dollar will have lost 20.25% against the euro and 25.5% against the yen; the S&P 500 will plunge by a third. Meanwhile, the 10-year US Treasury will be yielding 0.1%.

It’s a bleak, bruising scenario – it may not seem very likely today – but