Crisis alert: new model aims to give early warning of downturn

Academics say tool could offer policymakers up to three years’ notice of impending crash

Photo of loud-hailer

A new early warning model for predicting financial crises could give authorities more notice of an impending disaster, simply by using publicly available information, its creators claim.

In a paper, due to be published next year in the Journal of Risk, the authors – Greek academics Savas Papadopoulos and Pantelis Stavroulias and US academics Thomas Sager and Etti Baranoff – claim their early warning system can advise of the approach of a crisis and roughly how soon it will arrive, offering

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