From Russian roulette to overcautious decision-making

Risk-taking ought to be judged by its necessity, not likely outcomes, says Ariane Chapelle

russian-roulette-shutterstock
Losing game: when it comes to upside, Russian roulette is not exactly comparable to risky trading

Ariane Chapelle is honorary reader in operational risk at University College London and the director of Chapelle Consulting, a UK-based risk management advisory firm

In one of the opening statements of his 2001 book, Fooled by Randomness, Nassim Nicholas Taleb highlights the necessity of judging decision-making by the risk taken rather than by its outcome. His illustration is Russian roulette: just because you survive the game doesn't mean it was clever to play.

As a mother, my equivalent

To continue reading...

You need to sign in to use this feature. If you don’t have a Risk.net account, please register for a trial.

Sign in
You are currently on corporate access.

To use this feature you will need an individual account. If you have one already please sign in.

Sign in.

Alternatively you can request an individual account here: