Journal of Risk Model Validation

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A framework for stress-testing banks' credit risk

Jim Hock-Yuen Wong, Ka-Fai Choi, Pak-Wing Fong

ABSTRACT

This study develops a framework for stress-testing the credit exposures of Hong Kong’s retail banks to macroeconomic shocks. Macro stress-testing is performed with the framework to assess the vulnerability of banks’ overall loan portfolios and mortgage exposures. A variety of shocks, similar to those occurred during the Asian financial crisis, are individually introduced into the framework for the tests. The results show that even for the value-atrisk at the confidence level of 90%, banks would continue to make a profit in most of the stressed scenarios, suggesting that the current credit risk of the banking sector is moderate.

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