Journal of Operational Risk

Statistical models for business continuity management

Concetto E. Bonafede, Paola Cerchiello, Paolo Giudici


The concept of risk assumes different meanings according to possible typologies of activities developed within several application fields. Therefore various definitions of this concept exist, but in general risk is measured in terms of a combination of two variables concerning different aspects of an harmful event: the frequency and the impact. However, in order to guarantee the continuity of operations and activities, the simple measurement of the risk is not enough: the management of the risks of interruption of the services and their recovery to a particular level of efficiency within a reasonable timeframe, play key roles. This represents the reason why business continuity management (BCM) could be considered complementary to operational risk management in improving the efficiency of an organization in delivering either a service or a product. The objective of this paper is to provide some examples of how statistical models can be used to define the timeframe for the recovery activity and to analyze interruptions within the context of BCM.

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