Journal of Energy Markets

Risk.net

Forecasting transmission congestion

Anders Loland, Egil Ferkingstad and Mathilde Wilhelmsen

ABSTRACT

In electricity markets, transmission congestion creates area price differences. Therefore, good forecast models for congestion are valuable in themselves, and may also improve price predictions. We study a combined measure of the net capacity utilization for one single price area, and provide hourly day-ahead forecasts for the NO1 area of Nord Pool using several different prediction models. These forecasts are combined, using average forecasts and two different types of weighted averages of forecasts.We compare the performance of the different models. In most cases, the combined transmission congestion forecasts outperform the other methods for data from 2003 to 2009.

To continue reading...

You need to sign in to use this feature. If you don’t have a Risk.net account, please register for a trial.

Sign in
You are currently on corporate access.

To use this feature you will need an individual account. If you have one already please sign in.

Sign in.

Alternatively you can request an indvidual account here: