The one-year lag

The chart below, provided by Lehman Brothers, shows how corporate bond spreads follow net new bond issuance, with a 12-month lag. Assuming this correlation continues as closely as it has over the past six years, the Lehman Credit Index could tighten to as little as 81 basis points by the end of this year, according to Arthur Tetyevsky, investment-grade credit strategist at Lehman Brothers in New York. The index was at 89 basis points in mid-February, but Tetyevsky cautions, “Spreads are not

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