Country and Political Risk
First published:
ISBN: 9781782722175
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Introduction
Sam Wilkin
Introduction
Preface: Two economists’ views on the bank-sovereign linkage
Introduction
Assessing Country Risk: A Practical Guide
Sovereign Risk: Characteristics, History and a Review of Recent Research
The Arab Spring: Insights for Political Risk Analysis
The Eurozone Crisis: The Forgotten Risks of Private and External Debt
How the Eurozone Crisis Became a Banking Crisis, and the Risk of Japanisation
The Changing Dynamics of Country Risk
Capital Flight as a Political Risk Indicator
Debt Crisis Indicators of Emerging Markets versus Eurozone Economies
How Much Economic Capital Could European Banks Save? The Case for Optimal Sovereign Risk Allocation
Fixing Fundamental Flaws in Probabilistic Country Risk Models
Have We Learned the Country Risk Management Lessons of the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis?
Using Systems Thinking to Enhance Country Risk Assessment
Approaches to the Quantification of Country Risk
Stress Testing Across International Exposures and Activities
Since the start of the 1990s, it appeared that country risk for global financial institutions was, generally speaking, well managed. Country risk was largely an emerging markets phenomenon. Although the Asian financial crisis and Russian debt default caused global tremors, and the latter provoked an intervention from the US Federal Reserve regarding systemic risk, neither seemed to pose existential threats to most major global banks. Partly as a result, many bank country risk departments – including the large research teams that produced country risk reports, for instance at Bank of America – were reduced in size or importance.
After 2007, everything changed. Country risk gripped the advanced economies with the global financial crisis and then, eventually, Greek sovereign default. Crises erupted in countries believed – indeed, specified by regulation – to be risk-free. Collapsing banks threatened the creditworthiness of sovereigns; collapsing sovereigns threatened the creditworthiness of banks. Global systemic crises, involving a sudden stop in short-term bank funding, were narrowly averted.
A NEW ERA IN COUNTRY RISK
The first edition of this volume, published in 2004
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