Forecasting crypto crashes with bubble analysis

Analysis finds bubble signals in bitcoin and ether, write trio of quant risk managers

Bubble signals: last year's crashes in bitcoin and ether could have been timed via models

Warnings about investing in bitcoin have come thick and fast in recent months. But what does the data show? Applying bubble-detection models to the two most important cryptocurrencies – bitcoin and ether – finds strong bubble signals last year for both, anticipating the large, actual crashes observed in the crypto markets. Those signals persist in the first two weeks of 2018.

The implication is that investor exuberance is driving prices for both currencies away from their fundamental values, cr