Niels Kortleve, head of the integrated balance management committee at Dutch pension fund PGGM, likes to use a parable to describe the dilemma currently faced by his fund. "I want to go on holiday to the Far East, and I plan my trip," he says. "Two days before I'm due to leave I get a phone call saying my mother-in-law is in hospital. You can reach the conclusion that you have to change your plan due to short-term risks; you have to deviate from your long-term plan."
The parable goes to the h