The announcement yesterday by finance minister Alistair Darling left the bank's future still in doubt. Nationalisation was not a permanent solution, he said - the government intended ultimately to reprivatise the bank after it had been restructured and market conditions had improved. This could take up to three years, he said today.
But S&P analyst Richard Barnes wrote that the bank would not share the UK's AAA rating while uncertainty remained about its fate.
"If/when the bank is returned to the private sector, the ratings will depend on the financial strength of the buyer(s) as well as Northern Rock's stand-alone credit profile at that time. We do not exclude the possibility that a buyer cannot be found and the government consequently has to place Northern Rock into run-off," Barnes wrote.
The move is the first bank nationalisation in recent UK history - but it had been presaged by the announcement on February 7 from the Office of National Statistics (ONS) that Northern Rock was already effectively nationalised.
The degree of control that the Bank of England exerted over Northern Rock as a result of its guarantees, even without official privatisation, meant its £90 billion of debt belonged on the public balance sheet, the ONS said.
- People moves: SocGen adds in prime services, Deutsche fills new rates hole, HSBC makes model move, and more
- Quant Finance Master’s Guide 2019
- Credit risk quants are hitting the tech gap
- Princeton tops inaugural Risk.net quant master’s ranking
- Does credit risk need an expected shortfall-style revamp?