Technical paper/Commodities
CVA pricing for commodities with WWR
A calculation of CVA integrating a commodity futures exposure with probability of an event under WWR and credit downgrades
Using derivatives to forecast oil scenarios
Generating probability-weighted oil price scenarios from traded derivatives prices can help risk managers in the industry
Managing energy market volumetric risk
Krzysztof Wolyniec presents a volumetric risk management model for energy markets
P&L attribution for energy portfolios with non-linear exposures
Carlos Blanco and Alessandro Mauro explain how non-linear P&L attribution tools can improve a company’s business intelligence capabilities
Identification and capitalisation of non-modellable risk factors
Adolfo Montoro, Tim Becker and Lars Popken propose techniques for systematically capturing and categorising non-modellable risk factors and risk-adequate aggregation
A pairs trading strategy based on switching-regime volatility for commodity futures
A pairs trading strategy can give a larger Sharpe ratio with respect to classical methods
Commodity volatility, skew and inverse leverage effect
Krzysztof Wolyniec on leverage effects and volatility in commodity markets
A profit and loss attribution framework for physical and financial energy portfolios
A P&L attribution framework can improve the information available to energy traders
Simulating meaningful uncertainty for complex energy portfolios
The meaningful uncertainty simulation framework can enable energy firms to make better decisions
The UK carbon floor and power plant hedging
How to calculate expected future carbon costs and optimal valuation and hedging decisions, by adjusting Monte Carlo simulations for the UK market
How to get maximum value from power plant hedging
Dynamic hedging is becoming more common among plant operators
Commodity premia: It’s all about risk control
Strategies based on commodity risk premia can be rewarding – but beware common pitfalls
Modelling the financial risks of wind generation with Weibull
The manner in which wind generation can affect the half-hourly APX price is discussed
Internal transfer price optimisation for integrated energy firms
A framework that demonstrates optimal internal pricing will deviate from ‘arm’s length principle'
Cutting Edge: Co-simulation of risk factors in power markets
A simple but realistic model to co-simulate the time series of temperature, electricity load and prices is proposed
Quant ideas: Do we need realistic models?
Realistic models not necessarily a prerequisite for successful risk management
Applied risk management series: Counterparty risk exposure metrics
Carlos Blanco outlines an approach to counterparty risk using potential future exposure
Anatomy of a model: Valuation of physical assets
Quant ideas paper dissects layers of valuation models for physical assets
Quant ideas: Building a better LNG forward curve
An overview of effective methods for constructing long-term LNG forward price curves
Cutting edge: Kriging smooth energy futures curves
Applying kriging to extract smooth curves from energy futures prices