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Prediction markets
Will Kalshi and Polymarket win over prop shops? Don’t bet on it.
A few market-makers – Jump Trading and Susquehanna among them – are dabbling in prediction markets but most are holding off due to patchy liquidity and legal uncertainty
Liquidity on Kalshi, Polymarket ‘too thin’ for institutional use
Patchy trade flows cause outsize market impact for financial events, research from Risk.net shows
Prediction markets can be a canary in the coal mine
Prices of contracts on the likes of Polymarket can act as signals for risk management and hedging, says risk expert
The quiet force steering prediction platforms to regulation
Former Cantor Futures president Richard Jaycobs warns on growth prospects for ‘zero-sum’ market
Risk Quantum
Data insights, delivered daily
Risk Quantum tracks thousands of data points across hundreds of metrics from organisations that represent a cross-section of the financial system. Published daily, articles are short and broken into chunks – the facts, the context and a brief commentary – and use data visualisations to get each story across.
LFI revamp gives banks best ratings yet
Four in five firms clear new standard as matters requiring attention halve
Risk Benchmarking
On cyber risk, tech debt is big banks’ top challenge
Risk Benchmarking: Fragmented stacks make identifying vulnerabilities harder; manual workarounds increase human errors
Basel III Endgame
Double, but no trouble? CVA capital hit may lack clout
Industry opinion mixed around Basel III endgame derivatives charge
Erba myth: will US banks choose new capital measure?
B3E gives US banks a dilemma – adopt expanded risk-based approach, or a new standardised alternative
Un-American or un-JPM? Surcharge rethink divides G-Sibs
Some see sense in rethink to funding indicator, others call for a backtrack
Fed to move tailored-capital goalposts soon, says Bowman
Banks hope agencies will index triggers for harsher capital rules to economic growth
Artificial intelligence
Everything is connected: Santander’s US CRO shuns siloed thinking
Rise of AI intensifies links between fraud, cyber, third-party and other operational risk categories
Banks in Asia turn to integrated third-party risk units
Regional and global firms create centres of excellence bridging first and second lines
Barclays built a risk framework for GenAI from scratch
Eleven teams contribute to assessing generative AI use cases in a system that includes 35 controls
AI could shrink trader roles – markets heads
DekaBank, BNPP AM see hedging, risk position management and bond markets as ripe for robots
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