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Will Kalshi and Polymarket win over prop shops? Don’t bet on it.
A few market-makers – Jump Trading and Susquehanna among them – are dabbling in prediction markets but most are holding off due to patchy liquidity and legal uncertainty
Fifth Third, Flagstar EVE bets diverge in Q1
Comerica deal flips Fifth Third rate-risk profile
Euronext, LCH back Esma as exchange super-regulator
National oversight hurts Europe, exchange officials say – but some are not ready to accept a single watchdog
Why do prices jump?
After years of investigation, we still aren’t sure, says Jean-Philippe Bouchaud
Half of banks use scenarios to set third-party Pillar 2 capital
Risk Benchmarking study finds resilience risk less widely covered than cyber and IT disruption, but more formalised where scenarios exist
How vol eruption blew up Goldman’s rates book
Dealers were short payer skew from corporate and hedge fund flows. Then came the Iran war.
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Prediction markets
Liquidity on Kalshi, Polymarket ‘too thin’ for institutional use
Patchy trade flows cause outsize market impact for financial events, research from Risk.net shows
Prediction markets can be a canary in the coal mine
Prices of contracts on the likes of Polymarket can act as signals for risk management and hedging, says risk expert
The quiet force steering prediction platforms to regulation
Former Cantor Futures president Richard Jaycobs warns on growth prospects for ‘zero-sum’ market
AI governance rules coming soon, says CFTC chair
Selig doesn’t want to stifle innovation, but says trading or advice algos will need guardrails
Risk Quantum
Data insights, delivered daily
Risk Quantum tracks thousands of data points across hundreds of metrics from organisations that represent a cross-section of the financial system. Published daily, articles are short and broken into chunks – the facts, the context and a brief commentary – and use data visualisations to get each story across.
Fifth Third, Flagstar EVE bets diverge in Q1
Comerica deal flips Fifth Third rate-risk profile
Risk Benchmarking
Half of banks use scenarios to set third-party Pillar 2 capital
Risk Benchmarking study finds resilience risk less widely covered than cyber and IT disruption, but more formalised where scenarios exist
Basel III Endgame
Double, but no trouble? CVA capital hit may lack clout
Industry opinion mixed around Basel III endgame derivatives charge
Erba myth: will US banks choose new capital measure?
B3E gives US banks a dilemma – adopt expanded risk-based approach, or a new standardised alternative
Un-American or un-JPM? Surcharge rethink divides G-Sibs
Some see sense in rethink to funding indicator, others call for a backtrack
Fed to move tailored-capital goalposts soon, says Bowman
Banks hope agencies will index triggers for harsher capital rules to economic growth
Amid debanking drama, banks try to say ‘no’, safely
A basic risk management tool – the ability to turn a customer away – has become a political football
Artificial intelligence
Banks in Asia turn to integrated third-party risk units
Regional and global firms create centres of excellence bridging first and second lines
Barclays built a risk framework for GenAI from scratch
Eleven teams contribute to assessing generative AI use cases in a system that includes 35 controls
AI could shrink trader roles – markets heads
DekaBank, BNPP AM see hedging, risk position management and bond markets as ripe for robots
Regulators question human-in-the-loop as AI governance tool
Bank of England and FSB executives suggest it’s more important to retain overall accountability
How gatecrashers could spoil the tokenisation party
Blockchain can curb settlement risks, but that could come at the expense of new third-party risks
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