Not all hedges are created equal

Not all hedges are created equal


It is often said that the four most dangerous words in the English language are: “This time is different.” Having begun a career as a would-be economic forecaster on September 1, 1973, I learned this lesson early. At the time, forecasting had a good track record, encouraging some practitioners to boldly proclaim the end of boom-and-bust business cycles, but – six weeks after I entered the profession – the first successful Arab oil embargo ushered in what was then the worst recession since the

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