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Flood of sovereign debt drowns out corporate bonds

Elevated government borrowing will be a fixture of the credit markets for the foreseeable future, as emergency spending and tax shortfalls heighten state financing needs. But could this excess supply of sovereign debt threaten demand for corporate bonds? Alice James reports

london-bank-of-england-with-lamp-post-in-foreground

Bailing out the financial sector and setting up initiatives to stimulate the economy haven’t come cheap in the US or Europe, and most governments are still sorting out the bill. Added to that, governments have generally been unwilling to jeopardise the economic recovery by hiking taxes, leading to a drop in public revenues and a rise in fiscal deficits.

The International Monetary Fund estimates

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The wild world of credit models

The Covid-19 pandemic has induced a kind of schizophrenia in loan-loss models. When the pandemic hit, banks overprovisioned for credit losses on the assumption that the economy would head south. But when government stimulus packages put wads of cash in…

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