The reality of risk-free

Warnings over the stability of the UK's AAA rating by Standard & Poor's in May have caused analysts to question whether other AAA rated sovereigns - including the US - are at risk of downgrades, given ballooning debt levels. What implications does this have for the concept of a risk-free rate, used as a basis for derivatives pricing? By Duncan Wood

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For critics of the UK's ruling Labour party, the May 21 decision by Standard & Poor's (S&P) to slap a negative outlook on the country's cherished AAA credit rating was an opportunity to make hay. Right-wing tabloids branded it a national humiliation and ran pictures of the Queen looking less than amused. The opposition Conservatives repeated their calls for a general election. The political hullaballoo was attention-grabbing, but, a day later, the spotlight had moved on. In contrast, the denting

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Credit risk & modelling – Special report 2021

This Risk special report provides an insight on the challenges facing banks in measuring and mitigating credit risk in the current environment, and the strategies they are deploying to adapt to a more stringent regulatory approach.

The wild world of credit models

The Covid-19 pandemic has induced a kind of schizophrenia in loan-loss models. When the pandemic hit, banks overprovisioned for credit losses on the assumption that the economy would head south. But when government stimulus packages put wads of cash in…

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