Journal of Energy Markets

Stochastic modeling of photovoltaic power generation and electricity prices

Fred Espen Benth and Noor ’Adilah Ibrahim

  • Sun intensity function captures the seasonality in PV production very well.
  • Electricity prices have negative relationship with PV production.
  • An autoregressive time series of order 3 is sufficient to explain the stochastic behavior of production and spot prices.

We propose a stochastic model for the maximal production of photovoltaic (PV) power on a daily basis, based on data from three transmission system operators in Germany. We apply sun intensity as a seasonal function and model the deseasonalized data using an autoregressive process with skewed normally distributed noise, with seasonal variance to explain the stochastic dynamics. It is further demonstrated that the power spot prices are negatively dependent on the PV production. As an application of our results, we discuss virtual power plant derivatives and energy quanto options, as well as continuous-time stochastic processes for PV and power spot price dynamics.

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