Journal of Energy Markets

Gasoline price volatility and presidential elections in the United States: a linear model approach

Radin Ahmadian


Using historical data from 1919 to 2009 and based on economic and political variables such as the pattern and outcome of presidential elections, this study builds a model for predicting the price volatility of gasoline as a proxy for domestic energy value in the US. While the variability of energy tax policy, critical domestic and international events, and the crude oil market can account for around 72% of price fluctuations, the outcome and pattern of US presidential elections has also had a minor impact on the movement of gasoline price in the last ninety years. The impact of election politics is mainly related to power transfer from one party to another and whether the incumbent president was running for a second term.

Sorry, our subscription options are not loading right now

Please try again later. Get in touch with our customer services team if this issue persists.

New to View our subscription options

You need to sign in to use this feature. If you don’t have a account, please register for a trial.

Sign in
You are currently on corporate access.

To use this feature you will need an individual account. If you have one already please sign in.

Sign in.

Alternatively you can request an individual account here