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Model selection for loss reserves: The Growing Triangle technique

The problem of choosing an appropriate methodology for estimating loss reserves for a given set of loss data has long been an important task for actuaries. A 'Growing Triangle' technique is proposed for this purpose, in which sub-triangles of losses, embedded in the full triangle of available data, are used to assess the predictive power of various estimation methods

Introduction

In return for paying future claims on losses specified in insurance contracts, insurers receive premiums from policyholders in advance. However, the actual losses are not known for some time. Therefore, a method to estimate the expected liability is needed so that the insurer can calculate the profit of written policies and allocate reserved assets to ensure liquidity.

During the past

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