Ukraine invasion clouds rates consensus trades

“Old school” US macro trades are back in fashion, but geopolitical risks add uncertainty

Rates problems Ukraine Russia conflict
Montage: Jes2ufoto/Alamy Stock Photo/

Until Thursday (February 24), macro funds had coalesced around a series of trades described by one veteran rates trader as “old school macro” – directional positions in Treasuries and swaptions based on the expectation of a steady stream of rate rises in the US.

While rate rises in the US are currently still expected to go ahead largely as planned given the inflationary pressures in the market, traders say Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has added an extra dose of uncertainty to the popular trades

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