The unreliability of oil price forecasting
Oil price forecasts are notoriously unreliable, making life difficult for energy market participants attempting to manage their risks. Alexander Osipovich explores the reasons why analysts struggle to predict future prices
Oil analysts face a thankless task. Their forecasts for the price of crude are closely watched by traders, risk managers and the public at large. Yet research shows their predictions are usually inaccurate, and some critics scorn the idea that oil prices can be forecast at all.
“Oil experts, economists and government officials who have attempted in recent years to predict future demand and prices
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