The unreliability of oil price forecasting

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Oil analysts face a thankless task. Their forecasts for the price of crude are closely watched by traders, risk managers and the public at large. Yet research shows their predictions are usually inaccurate, and some critics scorn the idea that oil prices can be forecast at all.

“Oil experts, economists and government officials who have attempted in recent years to predict future demand and prices for oil have had only marginally better success than those who foretell the advent of earthquakes or

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