Unthinkably favourable

Imagination in stress testing demands unorthodox thinking, as even seemingly favourable events can have negative consequences. In the case of the oil markets, this means stress testing for a fall, as well as a rise, in oil prices, argues David Rowe

'It's an ill wind that blows no-one any good" is a common adage. Less common but equally valid is that "It's a benevolent breeze that blows no-one any harm." Stress tests around oil prices inevitably focus on a major increase, but a significant fall in oil prices would have certain negative consequences. A major increase is certainly the type of price shock that seems most likely.

Potential