‘It’s the economy’: forecasting an op risk climate change spike

The history of op risk suggests the economic impacts of climate change could exacerbate losses, writes op risk head

Extreme weather

Climate change is coming – and it should be a big wake-up call for operational risk.

In the summers of 2014 and 2015, the meteorological effects of El Niño – which produces heavier rains and warmer weather in South America, but drier weather in South-east Asia – meant monsoons were later and less forceful than usual. It caused a 13% drop in pea production and a 70% increase in the price of chickpeas in India by the end of 2015 (see figure 1).

And, while op risk’s past behaviour suggests that

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Digging deeper into deep hedging

Dynamic techniques and gen-AI simulated data can push the limits of deep hedging even further, as derivatives guru John Hull and colleagues explain

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